Weather Forecasting Simplified for the Chesapeake Bay

GRIB files, maps in motion, satellite imagery, NOAA point forecasts, smart buoys and weather apps. These are just a few of the hundreds of mind-boggling options we have at our fingertips these days to gather on-the-water weather forecasts and conditions. And if you don’t like what those forecasts are telling you, just check back in an hour and it all might change. And even though we joke about notoriously incorrect weather forecasts, we still check and rely on these forecasts for planning our sailing adventures. Let's look at a simple and detailed process for pulling up weather forecasts.

On Base Camp, my Pearson 31-2, I focus on just a few websites and graphs to help predict and forecast the weather. I use the NOAA sites for planning the next sailing expedition and for setting expectations on departures and destinations. Reading and understanding the information on these websites is what I cover in this blog. An additional blog entry will follow with information on real-time weather/sea state conditions that you can use while you are out on the water.

Using a few weather models, I have become pretty accurate with the results of my process. Of course, the short-range (within 12-24 hours) forecast is going to be much more accurate than long-range data.

I start with NOAA’s ‘Point Forecast’ for the Annapolis area shown below (link here). This area is Base Camp's home cruising grounds. However, you will be able to drill into any cruising area as I show you how to do it later in this blog.

Many people are familiar with this site. It can be considered a starting point to get a quick snapshot of a 7 day/night forecast. I sometimes find this forecast somewhat misleading - much of the report shows forecasted minimum and maximum wind conditions with little regard for the timing of these conditions. However, there are two very useful links within this page that are my special sauce. First, there is a map in the right column. This is where you can drill into your cruising grounds by panning and zooming the map and then clicking on any place you want in order to get a forecast for your specific area.

Second, the 'Hourly Weather Graph' (link here) - the very extra special sauce of pretty detailed information - is so important to me that I have it set as my browser home page is (drum roll please) ...  Clicking that highlighted image below the map, also located on the right column takes you to my weather forecasting crown jewel with a wealth of detailed and very pertinent information. 

This Hourly Weather Graph has lots of detailed data for your specific location as selected on the previous screen. It can be further customized to your needs. The top graph is hourly predicted temperature. The second graph is wind speed, direction and gusts. I find wind information THE MOST IMPORTANT prediction information for planning my sailing adventures on the Chesapeake Bay. The bottom graph shows precipitation potential. You can customize your charts from the list and radio buttons at the top of the page, submit a specific 48-hour time period, and manually forward in 48-hour increments. This hourly forecast graph is bookmarked on my cell phone and my home screen on my laptop for weather forecasting on the Chesapeake bay.

Check back in a few weeks for some more great information on weather/sea state condition reports while you are actually sailing on the Bay. My blog will also include information on great apps for real-time tide, current, wind and sea state conditions.